Orange, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS61 KOKX 160528
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summer-like warmth builds this weekend into Wednesday.
Potential for isolated tstm activity Mon and Tue aft/eve west of
the Hudson R, with scattered activity with cold frontal
approach Wed aft/eve.

2) Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with good
boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Upper low slide east this evening with diurnal shower activity
across southern CT and E LI quickly coming to an end and skies
gradually clearing. Heights rise tonight with flat upper flow
this weekend, and surface high pressure sliding off the SE US
coast, allowing for a warmer airmass to begin advecting into the
region from the west.

With 850 hpa temps rising to around 10C on Saturday,
strengthening S/SW flow and deep mixing away from the southern
and eastern coasts, air temps will rise well into 70s for much
of the region. Lower 80s for NE NJ and adjacent NYC metro. Upper
60s to lower 70s along south coastal communities, with flow off
low 50s degrees waters.

A shortwave sliding through northern New England and Canadian
Maritimes Sat Night into Sunday, will have a weak cold front moving
through the areas Saturday Night. Potential for a few showers with
this feature into Sunday morning with weak forcing and
elevated instability as well as moisture pooling.

High temps likely reach into the 80s across most of the area on
Sunday, with W/WNW flow and deep mixing to 850hpa temps rising
to around 14c teens to start the day, before giving way to
afternoon south coast seabreezes. This should allow for highs
10-15F degrees above seasonable. Highs likely get into the
upper 80s across metro NE NJ, with lower 80s to 85 quite
possible for all but the immediate shoreline if offshore flow
materializes as expected. That would put BDR and ISP close to
record highs Sunday, which is 85 set back in 1974.

Upper ridging builds in early next week, anchored by Bermuda
high pressure, bringing in the warmest airmass of the season by
Tue/Wed. One caveat, is that as a northern stream shortwave
digs thru the Canadian Maritimes Sunday Night/Monday it will
bring a backdoor cold front thru the region Sunday Night. This
will result in an onshore low-level flow on Monday. So despite
850 HPA temps rising solidly into the mid teens aloft, a
maritime influence will limit mixing and keep south and eastern
coastal areas in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Latest NBM
guidance may be a tad too warm for coastal areas on Monday,
although a weak flow in the morning could allow for rapid
heating during the morning hours. Areas west of the Hudson
River, with reduced maritime influence and deeper mixed layer
likely getting into the lower 80s-85 (10-15 degrees above
seasonable). Potential for late day isolated tsra activity west
of the Hudson, and then Monday Night areawide, with warm frontal
approach/passage and weak vorticity rounding the ridge in a
marginally unstable (elevated)/weak shear environment.

The region will be solidly warm sectored Tue/Wed, with 850 hpa
temps continuing to rise into the upper teens. With S/SW flow
and deep mixing this will likely result in the warmest temps of
the season so far, particularly away from south and east coasts.
Highs 15 to 25 degrees above normal likely for Tuesday and
Wednesday across NYC/NJ metro and interior, and at least 10 to
15 above for coastal areas. At this time, forecast highs fall
short of record highs (mid to upper 90s). NBM 5.0 guidance has
been lowered a tad, based on synoptic set-up and concerns bias
algorithms are over-correcting as we quickly transition into
anomalously warm airmass. Nonetheless, widespread highs in the
lower to mid 90s across NYC/NJ metro and areas to the N&W look
likely. With Tds currently forecast in the lower 60s, heat
indices would be near the air temps. Heat advisory potential is
low across NE NJ and low and sparse across Lower Hudson Valley
and portions of NYC at this time. Elsewhere, temps well into
the 80s likely for much of the rest of the area, with upper
70s/lower 80s for immediate southern and eastern coastal
communities.

Potential for late Tuesday isolated tstm activity, mainly N&W
of NYC, with approach of pre-frontal/thermal trough and weak
vorticity lobes rounding the ridge. Low and sparse severe
potential in a weak shear/marginally unstable airmass. Global
model guidance for midweek continues to show a break down of the
upper-level ridge in response to a closed upper-low traversing
Canada. Better chance for scattered thunderstorms and isolated
severe potential Wed aft/eve with falling heights, approaching
pre-frontal trough/cold front, and likely better deep layer
shear. This better potential indicated by CSU-MLP as well.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water
temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water
temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical
incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone
going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan
accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure departs to the NE as high pressure builds to the
south.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Light and variable flow will become light SW towards daybreak.
SW winds increase through the morning, with S/SW gusts to 25 kt
by early afternoon. Gusts to 30kt possible for JFK and KISP in
the late afternoon/early evening. Winds gradually diminish after
00z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

S/SW gusts 25 to 30 kt likely for Sat late aft/early eve push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR. S/SW winds subsiding to 5 to 10kt.
Isolated shra potential Sat Night.

Sunday: VFR. W/SW winds 10-15g20kt, giving way to late
afternoon seabreeze for south coastal terminals.

Monday: VFR. SE winds 10-15g20kt. Isolated tsra potential Monday
Night.

Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-20g25kt. Isolated tsra potential
late Monday aft/eve, mainly west of Hudson terminals.

Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower in
scattered SHRA/TSRA in the late afternoon/evening. S/SW winds
15-20g25-30kt. NW windshift in the evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SE swell from low pressure heading up into the Canadian Maritime
will continue SCA seas across the ocean waters into the first half
of tonight. The respite will be short-lived, as high pressure
quickly builds across the waters late tonight into Saturday morning,
then to the east.

A strengthening southerly flow is likely to bring a return to SCA
conditions on the ocean late Saturday afternoon/early evening. as
well as 25 kt gusts  in Lower NY Harbor and south shore bays of W
LI. Winds will gradually subside the second half of Saturday night
into Sunday. However, ocean seas could linger around 5 ft on the
ocean waters for much of Sunday with residual S swell.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water
temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures
can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone
suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats,
canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday night
as flow temporarily weakens under high pressure. SCA conditions
likely redevelop on the ocean water Tue into Tue night with
strengthening SW flow, potentially for all waters by Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV